The Possible Development of a San Antonio-Austin Mega-Region

There is some thought that the San Antonio and Austin metropolitan areas will eventually grow together and become one mega-region. I know some people that regularly commute to and from Austin and San Antonio for work and pleasure. A few people I know even make the commute daily for work. I have made several drives up and down I-35 to Austin for both business and pleasure. So, there are certainly economic linkages that have already developed between the two metropolitan areas. A few economists have even speculated that the Texas triangle formed by San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston will become a mega-region. I think this is too large of a geography for much economic integration to occur over the next couple of decades, but what about the development of a San Antonio-Austin mega-region?

Population growth in both San Antonio and Austin has been strong over the past decade and is projected to be strong for the next couple of decades. This growth in cities like San Marcos and New Braunfels, which sit in the middle of what would become the mega-region, has been even stronger and will continue to grow rapidly.

Based on my observations of growth in the region, I think the creation of this mega-region will occur over the next couple of decades, but I wanted to see if the population projections supported this. I pulled data from the Office of the State Demographer showing the projected population growth from 2015 through 2035 in all of the counties that would comprise the mega-region. The following table shows these projections, which support the conjecture that the mega-region will develop. (The Dallas-Fort Worth numbers are included only for comparative purposes.)

San Antonio-Austin Mega-Region
County	Major City	2015 Population	2035 Population	Growth Rate
Bastrop	Elgin	80,780	115,997	43.60%
Caldwell	Lockhart	41,100	54,485	32.57%
Hays	San Marcos	182,893	308,142	68.48%
Travis	Austin	1,111,829	1,407,810	26.62%
Williamson	Round Rock	477,329	744,423	55.96%
Atascosa	Pleasonton	48,451	63,491	31.04%
Bandera	Lakehills	21,475	24,089	12.17%
Bexar	San Antonio	1,839,926	2,331,743	26.73%
Comal	New Braunfels	118,571	160,515	35.37%
Guadalupe	Seguin	144,847	204,763	41.37%
Kendall	Boerne	36,090	47,658	32.05%
Medina	Hondo	49,158	62,562	27.27%
Wilson	Floresville	46,488	61,693	32.71%
Total		4,198,937	5,587,371	33.07%
Dallas-Ft. Worth		6,907,216	9,059,825	31.16%

How economically integrated this region becomes is another question, though. In my opinion, just expanding the highways or adding new highways so more cars can travel back and forth will not facilitate more integration. It will be necessary to add rail between San Antonio and Austin with several stops in between and complementary rail service of different types at both ends of the region. It is also going to be vital that the development of the downtowns in both Austin and San Antonio continue. In other words, it will require an integrated, comprehensive transportation system throughout the region in order to achieve the large economic benefits from the creation of this mega-region.