The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently posted an interesting article in which it discussed the slowing growth in Texas as employment growth slowed in June. However, this has not been the case in the San Antonio-New Braunfels metropolitan area. As shown in the following chart, employment growth in San Antonio picked up pace in May and June in contrast to the state economy and the other major metropolitan economies in Texas. Employment growth in San Antonio was faster than all of the other major metropolitan economies but just slightly lower than the growth in the state. Employment across the state grew 1.64% while employment grew 1.59% in San Antonio in June (Table 1). While growth in San Antonio is relatively stronger than the other major metropolitan economies, it is still below the long-term average growth rate of 2.30%.

The figures in Table 2 show the growth rates by industry in San Antonio. The growth rates highlighted in green show those growth rates across each industry that accelerated during this time period. This shows that the employment growth in San Antonio over the three months from April through June have been driven by construction, mining, and natural resources; manufacturing; trade, transportation, and utilities; financial activities; education and health services; and leisure and hospitality. Construction grew on average 2.32% over this six-month period with the biggest acceleration coming in May and June, while mining and natural resources declined -0.45% over this period. For those who live in San Antonio, it is probably no surprise that construction drove the growth in this sector. Growth in education and health services was driven by growth in health services with an average monthly expansion of 4.09% over this period. Employment in private education health services shrank -1.88% on average each month. Keep in mind that this is just private education health services, as the public schools are captured in local government.

While the state and metropolitan economies are still expanding as measured by employment growth, their growth is slowing. Maybe San Antonio continues to lead the pack in growth, but I do expect overall growth to continue to be anemic and likely even slow more across the state and the U.S.

Steve